Where cash-flow maps fail seasonal businesses

A map that divides the year into twelve polite columns will flatter a retailer in Tbilisi and lie about a Kakheti producer. The lie is not always in the totals. It is in the months that look merely “a bit low” when they are in fact the weeks when glass, wages, and diesel arrive together.

The equal-month habit

Many forecasts start from last year’s total and spread it. That spread is harmless for a professional-services firm with retainers. It is harmful for anyone whose purchases bunch. If your glass order lands in July and your first export receipt in October, a map that shows a gentle summer is a map of a company that does not exist.

When we draw seasonal work, we ask for the calendar the operations people already keep on a wall: crush, bottling, the week the ski hotel actually fills. Those dates go on the cash map even if the ledger still posts them in a round monthly lump.

What the legend must say

If a month is an average, the legend says average. If a week is known and violent, the week gets a mark. Directors who only see monthly bars will vote for a purchase that collides with harvest wages. We have sat in rooms where everyone knew the harvest was “expensive” and still could not point to the Thursday.

A practical test

Print last year’s bank movements by week for the two hardest months. If the map you are about to approve cannot survive that printout, do not take it to the board. Bring the week view, even if it is ugly. Ugly is cheaper than a tank deposit in the wrong fortnight.